Boeing 20-Year Forecast Shows Steady Demand for Nearly 44,000 New Aircraft

Emerging markets, characterised by growing middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks, and continuous aviation investment, are anticipated to significantly influence global air traffic growth. This trend is expected to contribute to the demand for 43,600 commercial airliners over the next 20 years, according to Boeing's projections.

By 2044, these markets are projected to comprise over 50% of the global commercial fleet, an increase from nearly 40% in 2024. In anticipation of the Paris Air Show, Boeing unveiled its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which forecasts that aircraft supply will align with market demand by the end of the decade, allowing carriers to progressively renew and expand their fleets.

“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global aircraft fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new aeroplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”

CMO forecast highlights through 2044:

• Passenger traffic is projected to increase by 4.2% annually, more than doubling in size as it consistently surpasses global economic growth.

• The global fleet is projected to nearly double, reaching over 49,600 commercial aircraft, as airlines expand capacity to meet travel demand.

• Approximately 80% of the current in-service aircraft will be replaced by over 21,000 new deliveries, enhancing fleet efficiency and capability.

• Single-aisle aircraft are projected to constitute 72% of the global fleet, an increase from 66% in 2024. This growth is primarily driven by short-haul travel and the expansion of low-cost carriers in emerging markets.

• The global passenger widebody fleet is projected to expand to approximately 8,320 aircraft, up from around 4,400 in 2024. This growth is increasingly driven by carriers in emerging markets that are expanding their long-haul fleets.

• The diversification of supply chains and the expansion of express cargo networks are expected to lead to a nearly two-thirds increase in the global freighter fleet, necessitating the addition of 2,900 new production and converted freighters.

Air travel trends:

• Airline networks now serve approximately 30% more airport pairs than they did a decade ago, offering more convenient non-stop flight options.

• Travel spending, as a portion of discretionary expenses, has returned to pre-pandemic levels as consumers place a higher priority on air travel.

Since 1961, Boeing has annually published the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). Recognised as the longest-running forecast of its type, the CMO is considered the most thorough analysis of the commercial aviation industry.