AAD 2026: The Unmanned Takeover

3 minutes ago

4 min read

By Garth Calitz

There was a time when military aviation was fairly straightforward. You had an aircraft, a pilot, some weapons, a radar and, if things went particularly badly, a very expensive meeting afterwards. Those days are disappearing rapidly.

One of the most obvious trends at Africa Aerospace and Defence 2026 is the sheer prevalence of unmanned systems. What was once regarded as a specialist niche populated largely by remotely piloted surveillance aircraft has evolved into one of the fastest-moving sectors in military aviation.

At AAD 2026, unmanned aerial systems are no longer being displayed as an interesting technological sideshow. They are being presented as an increasingly fundamental component of future air power. And unlike the traditional military pilot, they don't require accommodation, oxygen, ejection seats, annual leave or somebody shouting at them for being late for briefing.

The term "drone" has become almost meaningless because of the enormous variety of systems now falling under that description. At one end of the spectrum are small commercial-style systems capable of providing troops with an aerial view of the battlefield. At the other are large, sophisticated unmanned aircraft capable of remaining airborne for many hours while carrying advanced sensors, communications equipment and weapons.

Between these extremes are loitering munitions, electronic-warfare platforms, autonomous logistics aircraft, counter-UAS systems and increasingly sophisticated unmanned combat aircraft.

The technology is also moving rapidly from remotely piloted aircraft towards autonomous operation. A remotely piloted aircraft still relies heavily on an operator to fly it. An autonomous system can perform many aspects of flight and mission management itself, allowing the human operator to concentrate on the larger tactical picture. The objective isn't necessarily to remove the human from the loop. It is increasingly about putting the human above the loop.

One of the most important developments is the emergence of manned-unmanned teaming. Rather than replacing conventional fighters and other crewed aircraft, unmanned systems are increasingly being designed to work alongside them.

The concept is particularly evident in the development of Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCAs. These autonomous aircraft are intended to operate alongside crewed combat aircraft, potentially providing additional sensors, weapons, electronic warfare capabilities and decoys. Instead of one fighter doing everything itself, the aircraft could effectively become the commander of a small airborne team.

One unmanned aircraft might carry additional radar equipment. Another could conduct electronic warfare. A third might carry weapons, while another could act as a decoy. The pilot remains responsible for the mission and critical decisions, while the autonomous aircraft expand the capabilities available to that pilot. It is, in effect, turning a single aircraft into a miniature airborne formation.

The rapid development of unmanned warfare has been accelerated dramatically by the war in Ukraine. The conflict has demonstrated the effectiveness of relatively inexpensive unmanned systems for reconnaissance, artillery spotting, battlefield surveillance and direct attack.

More importantly, it has demonstrated that drones do not have to be particularly large or sophisticated to have a significant operational effect.

Small systems have the capability to locate targets; different systems can launch attacks on them, and yet others can try to detect the enemy drones. This leads to a technological arms race progressing at an unprecedented pace.

A drone emerges; a system is created to jam it. The drone is then altered to withstand the jamming, prompting a new countermeasure. The drone is modified once more, continuing the cycle.

Military planners are therefore increasingly having to think about counter-UAS capabilities at the same time as acquiring their own unmanned systems.

The rise of unmanned aviation has created an entirely new requirement for air defence. Traditional air-defence systems were designed primarily around conventional aircraft, helicopters and missiles. The drone changes the equation. A small unmanned aircraft can be difficult to detect, relatively inexpensive and potentially deployed in large numbers. Destroying a drone with a sophisticated surface-to-air missile may technically solve the immediate problem, but it doesn't necessarily make economic sense.

This has encouraged rapid development of electronic warfare, jamming, spoofing, directed-energy weapons, interceptor drones and other lower-cost counter-UAS technologies. The battlefield is consequently becoming a contest between increasingly autonomous systems on both sides.

It is quite possible that tomorrow's air-defence operator will spend more time looking for something the size of a washing machine — or considerably smaller — than tracking traditional combat aircraft.

For African militaries, unmanned systems offer some particularly interesting possibilities. Africa presents enormous geographical challenges. Monitoring borders, coastlines, remote infrastructure and large areas of sparsely populated territory can be expensive using conventional aircraft.

An unmanned aircraft capable of remaining airborne for extended periods can provide persistent surveillance without the operating costs and human requirements associated with a conventional crewed aircraft.

The applications extend well beyond conventional warfare. Border surveillance, maritime security, anti-poaching operations, disaster assessment, search and rescue and monitoring of remote infrastructure can all benefit from unmanned aviation.

But buying the aircraft is only the beginning. A genuinely useful unmanned capability requires communications networks, secure data links, trained operators, maintenance facilities, intelligence-processing systems and the ability to continue operating when communications or satellite navigation are degraded.

That last point is becoming increasingly important. A drone that works beautifully when connected to GPS and a reliable data link is considerably less useful when an adversary is actively trying to disrupt both.

South Africa already possesses considerable aerospace engineering expertise and a history of developing unmanned systems. The country therefore has an opportunity to participate in this rapidly expanding sector rather than simply becoming an importer of finished systems.

The challenge is turning technological expertise into sustainable programmes. The local defence industry has repeatedly demonstrated that it can develop sophisticated aerospace products. The question is whether the country can provide the long-term procurement certainty needed to turn that expertise into operational capability and commercially sustainable products.