Officials are concerned that North Korea's increased missile testing could endanger passenger planes in the region, as Pyongyang often fails to provide advance notice of its activities, contrary to international agreements.

Recently, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, claiming it can reach the mainland United States.

This missile may have posed an immediate threat, as it flew close to the path a passenger jet had recently traveled. The missile landed 150 kilometers (93 miles) northwest of Okushiri Island at approximately 11:27 a.m. ET on Friday, according to the Japanese military.

Data from FlightRadar24 and the Japanese Self Defense Forces indicate that Air France Flight 293 passed just east of the missile's splashdown site about five to 10 minutes before the missile hit the water. At the time of the splashdown, the Air France flight was roughly 60 to 70 miles north of where the missile landed, based on a review of the data.

An Air France spokesperson stated that there were 332 individuals on board, consisting of 316 passengers and 16 crew members.

Two airways, which are established routes for navigation, are situated within 10 miles (16 kilometers) of the potential missile impact location.

North Korea has been consistently extending the range of its missile tests from its eastern coast into Japanese waters. The North Korean missile ascended to a maximum altitude of 3,700 kilometers before descending into the sea near Okushiri. Commercial airplanes typically fly at altitudes of about 30,000 to 40,000 feet.

In a statement on Wednesday, Air France mentioned that "the missile test zones in North Korea do not affect" the airline's routes, and Flight 293 finished its journey "without any reported incident."

The statement added, "Air France continuously evaluates potentially hazardous flyover areas and adjusts its flight plans as needed."

The recent test is not the first instance where North Korean missiles have been perceived as a potential threat to aviation. Following a test on July 4, US Defense Department spokesman Jeff Davis cautioned that the "missile flew through busy airspace used by commercial airliners." Davis stated that "responsible nations" should provide notice prior to conducting missile tests, as failing to do so endangers planes, ships, and spacecraft.

"We conducted our THAAD test over the weekend and carried out our ATACMS test, or ATACMS exercise, with the Republic of Korea on Friday night," he stated, referencing the Army's Tactical Missile System. "Irresponsible nations launch these without issuing any notice."

The likelihood of an unaimed missile hitting a plane is "billions to one," as stated by aviation safety analyst David Soucie. However, the potential consequences are significant, posing a challenging decision for airlines operating in the region.

"Does it initiate a war? Is it considered an act of war? The consequences of such an event go beyond a simple cost-benefit analysis," Soucie remarked.

According to guidelines from the International Civil Aviation Organization, a UN agency responsible for air safety and related issues, countries are obligated to provide risk advisories about any threats to the safety of civilian aircraft flying in their airspace. "Said threats may include, but are not limited to, armed conflicts, ash clouds due to volcanic eruptions, missile tests and rocket launches," the guidelines state.

Since at least 2014, South Korea has cautioned that North Korea often neglects to issue notices to airmen (NOTAM) when conducting missile tests. These notices are essential for alerting pilots and airlines to potential hazards during flights.

In March 2014, Seoul reported that a passenger plane narrowly avoided a North Korean rocket in a "very dangerous" incident.

Peter Harbison, executive chairman of the Australia-based Centre for Aviation, stated that North Korea is "clearly breaching international norms" by not providing these notifications.

Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that it alerted all vessels and aircraft in its exclusive economic zone eight minutes following the North Korean missile launch.

Air France acknowledged receiving the warning but noted that the message "did not specify any indication or instruction requiring an operational action on the part" of the airline. Two NOTAM messages were issued but not relayed to the crew because "the event had already passed when they were sent by the Japanese authorities," the airline explained.

Neglecting to issue proper guidelines can lead to disasters. During the 2014 conflict in Ukraine, airlines were advised to fly above 26,000 feet (7,900 meters), a height deemed safe from ground attacks.

However, a detailed report by Dutch authorities on the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 suggested that Ukraine might have overlooked the presence of weapons threatening civil aviation in the conflict zone.

The report concluded that a missile, with a significantly greater range than other weapons in the area, was responsible for the plane's destruction, resulting in nearly 300 fatalities.

If a North Korean missile were to approach a passenger jet, it would "probably not be something you would be able to detect like you detect another aircraft," a commercial pilot based in Hong Kong commented.

"You wouldn't even know it was coming," he added, speaking anonymously due to restrictions from his employer on discussing sensitive topics.

"The issue is North Korea is firing missiles out of its airspace jurisdiction. ... It's quite a big threat."

Adjusting flight paths to mitigate potential risks from North Korean activities would likely be a costly and challenging decision, said Soucie. "The bigger picture is the fact that no one really has the authority to mandate a no-fly zone," he remarked. "It's up to each airline to make that decision."

Such a decision would require airlines to significantly deviate from normal flight paths and airways, potentially incurring substantial fuel costs for long-haul flights, such as those from Asia to Western Europe.

The Hong Kong pilot mentioned that this could force some flights to make "technical stops to land and refuel somewhere" to complete their journeys.

#Airliners